Travel in 2025
By the year 2025 the travel industry will have changed considerably. At the moment (in 2012) the travel industry accounts for 5% of the total GDP of the world. This revenue goes to big travel companies but also to developing countries such as Thailand, India, Brazil and the Caribbean. A lot also goes to the second tier of the developed world such as Italy, Greece and Spain.
It is hard to make predictions about whether people will have more or less leisure time in the near future. Certainly the wave of money seems to have left the west coast of America and is cresting in China. Chinese employers are notorious, like their Japanese and Korean counterparts, for making their employees work 6 or 7 days a week and severely restricting public holidays. If China holds the economic reins in 2025 then it can be expected that the average length of holidays will decrease. However, it can be expected that those with lots of money will still go on foreign holidays. It is likely that high-end hotels and resorts in Koh Samui, the Bahamas and Italy will continue to do good business.
With the releasing of the green house gases caught in the perma-frost caused by the melting of the polar caps world average temperatures will rise. This will result in two outcomes. One, places like Fiji and the Maldives will be underwater and their tourist trade will vanish along with their islands. And secondly, countries that were formerly too cold to attract many tourists such as Scandinavia and Canada will see an upsurge in tourist numbers, especially from tourists traveling in their own country.
Finally, with dwindling supplies of petrol, energy costs will be higher. Plane tickets will cost more. Air-con will cost more. As fewer people can afford to go to the tropics, and as they become hotter their will be initially a price war. This competition will be most strongly felt among mid-range and budget places.
To sum up, it looks like less holidays in 2025. There will still be a travel industry, but there will be clear winners and losers.
Posted: March 28th, 2012 under Energy.
Tags: travel in 2025, energy, price wars, less holidays